Click to enlarge. Source: ChangeWave, a service of 451 Research
FORTUNE — Two findings jump out of the latest ChangeWave Research survey of future smartphone buying plans.
When 4,042 American consumers were offered brief descriptions of the latest Samsung model and the features Apple (AAPL) is considered “likely to include” in its next generation “iPhone 5” (larger screen, improved camera, 4G/LTE capability, etc.) …
- 19% of those who said they were planning to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days said they were planning to buy a Samsung phone — a 6 percentage point jump from March and the second major bump since September (see Samsung fever chart below), thanks largely to the 9% who said they were likely to buy the new Galaxy.
- 50% said they were planning to buy an iPhone, down from an all-time high of 65% just before the release of the iPhone 4S, but a record for a 9-month-old phone. Moreover, when all consumers (not just smartphone buyers) were asked about the “iPhone 5” described in the survey, 14% said they were “very likely” and 17% “somewhat likely” to buy it — a “unprecedented” measure of advanced demand, according to Carton, “strikingly higher than we’ve seen for any previous iPhone model.”
Carton concludes: To get the full survey you have to be a ChangeWave member. See here. Below the fold: The Samsung fever chart.
To underscore his point, Carton offers a chart comparing the latest likely-to-buy responses with those offered in October 2011 for the iPhone 4S, which was, according to him, “the most successful smart phone in history.”
The huge wave of pent-up demand for the coming iPhone launch has important implications for the rest of the industry – and puts a number of second tier smart phone manufacturers at increased risk of coming in below plan for the year.